Market at the 100‑Day Moving Average: My Trading Plan for the Week

Markets are sitting on a technical knife edge. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are hovering at their 100‑day moving averages, breadth is stretched in places, and headline volatility is elevated. At the same time, the market is pricing a high probability of a Fed rate cut in early December. That creates a binary environment: either the market holds and rotates higher into a year‑end rally, or it breaks and a sharper correction unfolds.

Quick summary - the essentials

• S&P 500 is roughly 4.5% below its highs; the NASDAQ is about 7.5% below recent highs.
• Over 25% of NASDAQ names are oversold (RSI < 30). Historically, this has signaled some buying opportunities.
• Put volume has spiked, the second highest since 2005, indicating asymmetric bearish positioning.
• Unemployment recently printed around 4.4% (BLS), and Fed‑cut odds for the December meeting have risen materially (see CME FedWatch).
• Key macro calendar: PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims this week; next week brings ADP, non‑farm payrolls and the FOMC meeting on December 10.
• Volatility is likely to spike on headline misses; positioning is asymmetric: put volumes are elevated, leaving the market crowded to the downside.
• Technical condition: Bitcoin remains in a bearish structure on short time frames. I’ll adopt a bullish outlook and start increasing my risk when there is a daily close above 93K.

What matters on the economic calendar and why

Data this week will shape Fed expectations, and Fed expectations are the dominant driver of risk assets right now.

• PPI and Core PPI: early signals for CPI and inflation persistence.
• Retail sales: a read on consumer spending strength entering the holiday season.
• Initial jobless claims: near‑term labor market deterioration or stability.
• Next week: ADP and non‑farm payrolls ahead of the December 10 FOMC meeting. Note: CPI was reportedly moved to December 18, which reduces the data available to the Fed before that meeting.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/) and the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). Market‑implied cut probabilities can be monitored via the CME FedWatch Tool (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html).

Macro context - how these inputs affect price action

The Fed’s decision-making calculus is straightforward: a weakening labor market favors rate cuts, while persistent inflation argues against them. With rising unemployment and no new CPI data before the December 10 meeting, the chances of a rate cut have significantly increased. That dynamic implies two immediate outcomes:

• Risk assets can rally on a perceived easing path (if markets believe a cut is coming).
• Volatility will spike on headline misses; positioning is highly asymmetric because put volumes are elevated.

Technical framework I’m watching

I use a small set of high‑signal inputs to decide market posture:

1. Index levels vs. the 100‑day MA: Both SPY and QQQ are at a decision point. A clean hold here supports a rebound; a break will likely lead to deeper, faster selling.
2. Breadth & oversold conditions: Greater than 25% of NASDAQ names are below 30 on the RSI.  This is historically a local bottoming environment. Use this to hunt value, not to indiscriminately lever up.
3. Options skew and put volume: Record or near‑record put flows mean one side of the trade is crowded. Crowded trades can reverse quickly, be ready to fade extremes with tight risk controls.
4. VIX structure: The VIX versus VIX 3‑month ratio tells you whether current volatility is expected to persist. I want that ratio down into the low 80s before declaring short‑term volatility “resolved.”
5. Bitcoin as a risk‑on barometer: Bitcoin has been in bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows). If BTC closes above 93K and invalidates the recent lower high, correlation with equities usually flips positive and supports a broader risk rally.

Bitcoin - why I’m watching it closely

Bitcoin has decoupled from equities recently and is trading with negative correlation. Historically, when BTC is deep and decoupled, local bottoms in risk assets often follow. Two practical checkpoints:

• Weekly structure: still bearish. A confirmed bullish flip requires a close above the last lower high (around 93K in my framework).
• On‑chain holder profitability metric: both short‑ and long‑term holders are reportedly not in profit on a specific metric. When that metric dropped below 8 historically, the average gain two months later was significant. Treat this as one indicator, not the sole reason to trade.

Stocks and sectors I’m evaluating

This is a “find value” environment rather than a full long swing market. Examples I’m reviewing:

• Mastercard (MA): Large free‑cash flow company; RSI recently hit oversold readings. Looking for a disciplined entry on a clean technical retest.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Oversold on momentum; strong AI revenue growth and a clean balance sheet make it a priority name for selective buys.
• Netflix (NFLX): Trading near its 200‑day MA post‑split. Worth watching for mean reversion with solid free‑cash‑flow characteristics.
• Robinhood (HOOD): Trading below its 100‑day MA. Earnings and growth have expanded into its valuation; I’m considering Dollar Cost Average (DCA) into the 200‑day area, if price action cooperates.

Practical approach: screen for NASDAQ names with RSI < 30, then apply my 360° analysis: leadership team, unit economics, earnings trajectory, free cash flow, and valuation multiples. Only put capital to work where fundamentals align with risk‑reward.

My trade plan this week - clear rules

Here’s the checklist I use before initiating or adding to positions:

1. Macro confirm: no major upside CPI surprise before the FOMC that materially changes cut odds.
2. Volatility check: VIX/VIX3M ratio trending lower (target: low 80s) or VIX falling off an extreme spike.
3. Market breadth: a meaningful portion of index constituents showing oversold readings and price stabilization on heavy volume.
4. Bitcoin confirmation (if trading risk‑on): daily close above 93K to validate a structure flip.
5. Position sizing: limit initial buys to small allocations; scale on clean confirmatory action. Use protective stops or defined options structures to cap downside.

Specific actions I’m prepared to take

• Keep most exposure reduced until I see a structure flip or volatility normalize.
• If BTC closes >93K and VIX ratio weakens, add measured long exposure to select tech and high‑quality cyclicals.
• Use dollar‑cost averaging for speculative long opportunities (e.g., HOOD) with a pre‑defined target zone near the 200‑day MA.
• Trade indexed or sector hedges if SPY/QQQ break decisively below the 100‑day MA — tight execution and quick stops.

Scenario roadmap - plain language outcomes

1. Low inflation + weak jobs: The Fed has cover to cut, and risk assets likely rally after a volatility spike. Gold could also outperform.
2. Higher‑than‑expected inflation with weak jobs: Stagflation risk rises - both equities and bonds can suffer. Expect sharp rotation to defensives.
3. Data in line with expectations: Choppy markets; short‑term mean reversion trades work best. Maintain discipline and tight risk management.

Final take - concise positioning

We are not in a clean long swing environment yet. Treat this week as a selective, opportunity‑fishing environment: hunt for oversold names with sound fundamentals, keep sizing small, and let macro and volatility confirm before swinging large. Bitcoin is my primary conditional trigger for a broader risk rally; VIX structure and headline inflation data are the other gatekeepers.

Actionable next steps: scan NASDAQ for RSI < 30 names, shortlist by fundamentals, set defined buy zones and stops, and wait for macro/volatility confirmation before committing meaningful capital.

I focus on 360° company and market analysis: leadership, qualitative factors, financials, and price action. If you want me to take a look at a specific company, tell me which sector or ticker you want covered next.